Huh. Also not really sure how well the fizzle algorithm works as it currently is.
As I was working through various scenarios, I determined the following:
[*] Having full skill at any level yields an actual minimum fizzle chance of 7%, not counting specialization AA's.
Example: Level 20 with maxed 105 skill:
- par = Level 20 * 5 - 10 + Spell Level 20 = 100 - 10 + 20 = 110
- act = 105 skill + Level 20 leeway = 125 skill
- fizzle_chance = 10% + ((110 - 125) / 5) = 10% + -3% = 7%
Example of Level 80 with maxed 405 skill:
- par = Level 80 * 5 - 10 + Spell Level 80 = 400 - 10 + 80 = 470
- act = 405 skill + Level 80 leeway = 485 skill
- fizzle_chance = 10% + ((470 - 485) / 5) = 10% + -3% = 7%
So any character will fizzle a non-specialized spell a minimum of 1 out of 16 times on average. Cool to know.
[*] Add 0.2% fizzle chance for each point difference between max for level of spell being cast and character's actual skill level.
Example: Level 20 with 0 skill out of 105 max:
- par = Level 20 * 5 - 10 + Spell Level 20 = 100 - 10 + 20 = 110
- act = 0 skill + Level 20 leeway = 20 skill
- fizzle_chance = 10% + ((110 - 20) / 5) = 10% + 18% = 28%
- double-check: 105 skill difference / 5 = 21%. 7% base + 21% skill diff = 28%
Example: Level 50 with 0 skill out of 255:
- par = Level 50 * 5 - 10 + Spell Level 50 = 250 - 10 + 50 = 290
- act = 0 skill + Level 50 leeway = 50 skill
- fizzle_chance = 10% + ((290 - 50) / 5) = 10% + 48% = 58%
- double-check: 255 skill difference / 5 = 51%. 7% base + 51% skill diff = 58%
Even without the Level 49 cap problem above, the absolute maximum chance a Level 50 character has of fizzling a normal Level 50 spell with absolutely 0 skill for it is 58%. Almost 50/50.
A Level 20 with 0 skill is only at 28% chance to fizzle their spell. 2 out of 3 times it'll still cast.
That still sounds awfully lenient to me. I wonder if we could balance that a bit. I remember fizzling being reported as too punishing years ago, but it sounds like we've swung the pendulum a bit too far the easy way.
Caveat:
It's late at night and I've been thoroughly entertaining my left brain with superfluous mental math. I have not done any in-game testing to make sure actual experience meshes with the numbers above. It's technically possible I totally missed something and I'm way off and this whole thread is a waste of everyone's time.
Numbers seem to mesh, though. *shrug*
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