When I was in high school our Physics teacher would talk about how we didn't have to worry about war with the USSR, as we were only three miles from a primary target and would be vaporized instantly. You see, even though he was a Catholic Brother, in an earlier life he made ICBM rockets for the USAF (no, I'm not kidding). NASA even flew him down to Florida for a few months after Challenger exploded to inspect the wreckage. We all grew up thinking that the balloon would eventually go up and, if by some miracle it didn't immediately go nuclear, we would be fighting a land war against Soviet troops somewhere in Europe. Suffice to say, our outlook was bleak.
Today, my outlook is mixed. I'm not nearly as worried about being vaporized, and I'm rapidly nearing the cutoff age where I can't be drafted. Am I worried about Osama and nukes/dirty bombs? Not really. Even though terrorists would be more keen to use smuggled bombs, they don't have anywhere near the means to make them. The Soviets HAD them, and when I was growing up we all knew it. We also knew that the balance of power was the only thing stopping a war.
I'm glad I'm in my thirties, but I think it still might be too late for my generation. Population is going to become the single biggest issue in the next fifty years. If we think six billion people is a lot now, wait till we have nine--or twelve. I think a "one child" policy is a world-wide inevitability (I'm not saying it's morally right, just making a prediction). Here in the US, if we're really lucky, we MIGHT have fusion power by then, and will at least have electricity. We'll run out of drinking water in some areas long before then, though. Oil will be a huge issue too--I don't see it lasting another fifty years. In the US we could probably ramp up production lines a'la WWII for making electric cars in a hurry, but that would only strain the electrical grid even further. Not to mention that you can't run trucks and other heavy vehicles on them...which presents a problem if we wait until the very last dop of oil has gone before making the switch. No trucks, no domestic economy. Trust me--I know some truck drivers. Of course, this doesn't bode well at all for countries that can't mass-produce alternate transportation vehicles in a hurry.
We've always been worried about wars over oil. I'm starting to wonder if that's why we're talking about going after Saddam. Not because of a danger to us or even to Israel, but because an Iraq with nukes would completely upset the balance of power in the region. He could incinerate Riyadh and other key points in Saudi Arabia and simply roll in. It's not like the Saudis could stop him. Maybe there will be wars over oil. If not, I think there will eventually be wars over other more vital resources, especially water. No water=no crops=no food.
Okay, I'm depressed now.
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