I was thinking more about it and in addition to what I posted above you would need different percentages for different level ranges. Something like
11+ levels would be 75%(to 90%) of the time hit for max
5+ levels 50% of the time hit for max
3+ levels 35% of the time hit for max
EVEN con would be what I posted above
dark blue 10% of the time hit for max
light blue 5% of the time hit for max
green/grey 0% of the time hit for max
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