Hmm.. actually I did look at the graphs and they are interesting as far as level 5 goes. Unfortunately all they do is demonstrate a problem with the current formula, at those levels, without any variables except defense skill and level. You have succeeded in pointing out an issue.
I'm not really sure what you mean by "AC determines how much you get hit for and not what the mob is going to hit you for" .. For what it's worth I have worked on the combat code and have a thorough understanding of it.
At the end of the day no-one really cares about level 1-5 if the existing formulae work at the high end. Whether you think people are listening or not, the bottom line remains that you either come up with a workable formula and prove that it is significantly more accurate than the current, or if you want someone else to come up with a formula I suggest parsing ~10,000 lines of combat for each level, and finding the common min hit AC and common max hit AC thresholds at each level. That sort of data would be useful in trying to reverse engineer the mitigation formula. The graphs you posted highlight an issue at level 5, but they don't offer much in the way of solutions. The only reason I continue to respond is for the off chance you would actually do this :P I'm happy to build models if there is sufficient data.
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